Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

208.03 – 176.6

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

263 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 31.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 459.6 ±12.4

9696Hamichanics

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX -2.98Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 201.19Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9520Rock-it Robotics

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 9.82Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 377.2 ±12.4

8060Command B

Season APEX 38Event APEX 4.97Rank 37Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9505Vyserions

Season APEX 54.4Event APEX 33.62Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 138.01Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9696, 6036, 9520

/ 100 compat

Projected

208 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9696, 6036, 9520

Auto

32.0 15%

Teleop

157.2 75%

Endgame

21.6 10%

Strengths

· 6036 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8060, 9505, 3501

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8060, 9505, 3501

Auto

45.0 25%

Teleop

88.4 49%

Endgame

45.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score208pts

Blue projected score176.6pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.4
Score range: 141–244
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 432 vs event baseline 201.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

459.6Season APEX377.2

32Auto45

157.2Teleop88.4

21.6Endgame45.7

31Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	34
teleop	150	81
endgame	56	54
foul	0	0
total	263	169

Result

Final score

263 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 31.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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