Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

229.66 – 192.35

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

284 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 66.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 428.6 ±11.2

2404Team NEY Techs (TNT)

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 11.39Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 228.17Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10166Thunder Vikes

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX -9.9Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 514 ±10.7

2659RoboWarriors

A+

Season APEX 298.8Event APEX 124.55Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 54.55Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8533Rancho Reapers

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 13.25Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2404, 5026, 10166

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2404, 5026, 10166

Auto

34.7 15%

Teleop

125.3 55%

Endgame

67.3 30%

Strengths

· 5026 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2659, 11024, 8533

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2659, 11024, 8533

Auto

26.6 14%

Teleop

117.8 60%

Endgame

51.0 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score229.7pts

Blue projected score192.4pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.3
Score range: 156–266
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 398 vs event baseline 202.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

428.6Season APEX514

34.7Auto26.6

125.3Teleop117.8

67.3Endgame51

39Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	27
teleop	183	54
endgame	57	28
foul	0	5
total	284	114

Result

Final score

284 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 66.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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