Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

324.53 – 145.17

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

338 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 24.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 685.3 ±10.7

6658Rockbotics

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 7.21Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2659RoboWarriors

A+

Season APEX 298.8Event APEX 125.34Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 191.98Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 205.1 ±13.3

3965Sultan Robotics Team 3965

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 62.96Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8533Rancho Reapers

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 19.46Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5089Robo-Nerds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 62.75Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6658, 2659, 6036

/ 100 compat

Projected

324.5 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6658, 2659, 6036

Auto

43.6 13%

Teleop

213.9 66%

Endgame

68.5 21%

Strengths

· 6036 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3965, 8533, 5089

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3965, 8533, 5089

Auto

25.8 19%

Teleop

77.6 57%

Endgame

31.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.61 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score324.5pts

Blue projected score145.2pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 179.4
Score range: 109–361
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 448 vs event baseline 202.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

685.3Season APEX205.1

43.6Auto25.8

213.9Teleop77.6

68.5Endgame31.7

49Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	20
teleop	222	48
endgame	68	12
foul	0	30
total	338	110

Result

Final score

338 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 24.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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