Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

272.93 – 217.85

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

155 – 269

Prediction missed · off by 84.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 608.1 ±10.7

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 156.35Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 91.05Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10147ArmBots

Season APEX 26.4Event APEX 25.53Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 502.3 ±9.8

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 171.68Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1148Harvard Westlake Robotics

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 38.74Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2404Team NEY Techs (TNT)

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 7.43Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3501, 3255, 10147

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3501, 3255, 10147

Auto

47.7 18%

Teleop

171.0 64%

Endgame

47.7 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7415, 1148, 2404

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7415, 1148, 2404

Auto

60.8 29%

Teleop

106.4 50%

Endgame

45.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score272.9pts

Blue projected score217.9pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55.1
Score range: 182–309
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 424 vs event baseline 201.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

608.1Season APEX502.3

47.7Auto60.8

171Teleop106.4

47.7Endgame45.2

52Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	55
teleop	54	124
endgame	43	85
foul	0	5
total	155	269

Result

Final score

155 – 269

Prediction missed · off by 84.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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