Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

327.47 – 77.38

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

404 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 43.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 642.4 ±10.7

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 182.72Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3965Sultan Robotics Team 3965

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 40.17Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 104.58Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 326.4 ±12.4

6000Firehawk Robotics

Season APEX 59Event APEX 11.01Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2429The Blockheads

Season APEX 229.5Event APEX 60.09Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10936Hooverstan

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 6.28Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6036, 3965, 9084

/ 100 compat

Projected

327.5 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6036, 3965, 9084

Auto

51.1 16%

Teleop

202.9 63%

Endgame

69.6 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6000, 2429, 10936

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.4 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6000, 2429, 10936

Auto

26.4 35%

Teleop

32.9 43%

Endgame

16.4 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.71 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score327.5pts

Blue projected score77.4pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 250.1
Score range: 39–365
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 492 vs event baseline 212.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

642.4Season APEX326.4

51.1Auto26.4

202.9Teleop32.9

69.6Endgame16.4

36Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	37
teleop	267	25
endgame	69	26
foul	0	0
total	404	88

Result

Final score

404 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 43.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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