Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

309.12 – 207.63

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

354 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 106.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 527.3 ±10.5

7323TriTron

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX 1.09Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6995NOMAD

Season APEX 191.6Event APEX 175Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3512Spartatroniks

Season APEX 257Event APEX 133.03Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 329.1 ±12.4

4964Roosevelt Robotics

Season APEX 65.8Event APEX 65.65Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10166Thunder Vikes

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX 9.68Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 132.3Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7323, 6995, 3512

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7323, 6995, 3512

Auto

66.9 22%

Teleop

165.8 55%

Endgame

67.5 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4964, 10166, 9084

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4964, 10166, 9084

Auto

28.8 14%

Teleop

130.8 62%

Endgame

50.4 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.31 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score309.1pts

Blue projected score207.6pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 101.5
Score range: 172–345
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 393 vs event baseline 202.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

527.3Season APEX329.1

66.9Auto28.8

165.8Teleop130.8

67.5Endgame50.4

93Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	15
teleop	251	5
endgame	70	19
foul	5	0
total	354	39

Result

Final score

354 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 106.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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