Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

89.97 – 165.05

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

112 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 37 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 235.6 ±12.8

4Team 4 ELEMENT

Season APEX 146.5Event APEX 28.82Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10936Hooverstan

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 23.7Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9772Titans Robotics

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 37.45Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 339.8 ±11.2

696Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 145.1Event APEX 102.83Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 58.85Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9696Hamichanics

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 3.37Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4, 10936, 9772

/ 100 compat

Projected

90 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4, 10936, 9772

Auto

15.3 19%

Teleop

38.2 46%

Endgame

28.9 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 696, 11024, 9696

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 696, 11024, 9696

Auto

31.2 19%

Teleop

109.6 66%

Endgame

24.7 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score90pts

Blue projected score165.1pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -75.1
Score range: 53–202
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 225 vs event baseline 204.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

235.6Season APEX339.8

15.3Auto31.2

38.2Teleop109.6

28.9Endgame24.7

56Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	32
teleop	72	64
endgame	32	17
foul	0	0
total	112	113

Result

Final score

112 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 37 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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