Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

41.96 – 186.47

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

27 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 31.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 185.5 ±13.9

8533Rancho Reapers

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 20.48Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3328NoHoRobo

Season APEX 60.9Event APEX 3.93Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

22Double Deuce

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 17.55Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.6 ±12.8

8033Highlander Robotics

Season APEX 146.1Event APEX 90.56Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3965Sultan Robotics Team 3965

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 72.76Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6000Firehawk Robotics

Season APEX 59Event APEX 23.15Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8533, 3328, 22

/ 100 compat

Projected

42 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8533, 3328, 22

Auto

15.4 37%

Teleop

28.5 69%

Endgame

-2.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8033, 3965, 6000

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8033, 3965, 6000

Auto

34.1 19%

Teleop

103.0 57%

Endgame

43.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score42pts

Blue projected score186.5pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -144.5
Score range: 5–223
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 165 vs event baseline 207.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

185.5Season APEX268.6

15.4Auto34.1

28.5Teleop103

-2.8Endgame43.5

45Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	31
teleop	4	46
endgame	12	46
foul	0	15
total	27	138

Result

Final score

27 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 31.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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