Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

192.35 – 266.71

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

194 – 281

Prediction correct · off by 8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 623.1 ±9.3

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 100.27Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2404Team NEY Techs (TNT)

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 9.93Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2429The Blockheads

Season APEX 229.5Event APEX 82.15Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 364.8 ±12.8

597The Wolverines

Season APEX 107.4Event APEX 27.92Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4964Roosevelt Robotics

Season APEX 65.8Event APEX 63.2Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6995NOMAD

Season APEX 191.6Event APEX 175.59Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3255, 2404, 2429

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3255, 2404, 2429

Auto

53.1 28%

Teleop

99.5 53%

Endgame

36.2 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 597, 4964, 6995

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 597, 4964, 6995

Auto

51.1 20%

Teleop

144.3 56%

Endgame

63.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score192.4pts

Blue projected score266.7pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -74.4
Score range: 155–304
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 475 vs event baseline 205.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

623.1Season APEX364.8

53.1Auto51.1

99.5Teleop144.3

36.2Endgame63

78Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	63
teleop	136	129
endgame	13	89
foul	5	0
total	194	281

Result

Final score

194 – 281

Prediction correct · off by 8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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