Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

86.83 – 69.12

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

119 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 28.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 188.2 ±13.3

10166Thunder Vikes

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX 6.97Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

702Bagel Bytes

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 79.48Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9696Hamichanics

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 0.38Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268 ±11.7

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 50.84Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7323TriTron

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX 4.69Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10936Hooverstan

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 13.59Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10166, 702, 9696

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10166, 702, 9696

Auto

20.4 24%

Teleop

47.7 55%

Endgame

18.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11024, 7323, 10936

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11024, 7323, 10936

Auto

29.4 46%

Teleop

9.4 15%

Endgame

24.9 39%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score86.8pts

Blue projected score69.1pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.7
Score range: 32–124
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 213 vs event baseline 208.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

188.2Season APEX268

20.4Auto29.4

47.7Teleop9.4

18.3Endgame24.9

17Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	34
teleop	96	32
endgame	23	28
foul	0	0
total	119	94

Result

Final score

119 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 28.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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