Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

444.63 – 337.49

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

449 – 408

Prediction correct · off by 37.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 764.6 ±9.3

696Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 145.1Event APEX 103.52Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 158.95Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 182.16Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 608.8 ±10.7

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 121.48Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6658Rockbotics

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX -10.75Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 226.76Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 696, 3501, 6036

/ 100 compat

Projected

444.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 696, 3501, 6036

Auto

77.9 18%

Teleop

271.0 62%

Endgame

91.1 21%

Strengths

· 6036 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9084, 6658, 5026

/ 100 compat

Projected

337.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9084, 6658, 5026

Auto

28.8 8%

Teleop

221.8 64%

Endgame

96.5 28%

Strengths

· 5026 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.42 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score444.6pts

Blue projected score337.5pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 107.1
Score range: 301–481
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 857 vs event baseline 201.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

764.6Season APEX608.8

77.9Auto28.8

271Teleop221.8

91.1Endgame96.5

55Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	59
teleop	290	231
endgame	79	118
foul	15	0
total	449	408

Result

Final score

449 – 408

Prediction correct · off by 37.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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