Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

112.48 – 61.15

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

154 – 198

Prediction missed · off by 89.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 204.4 ±13.3

3965Sultan Robotics Team 3965

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 71.63Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8060Command B

Season APEX 38Event APEX 16.62Rank 37Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6934Scorps

Season APEX 102.9Event APEX 24.23Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 324.3 ±11.2

10147ArmBots

Season APEX 26.4Event APEX 13.59Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4Team 4 ELEMENT

Season APEX 146.5Event APEX 25.3Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 22.26Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3965, 8060, 6934

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3965, 8060, 6934

Auto

20.4 20%

Teleop

62.6 60%

Endgame

20.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10147, 4, 11024

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10147, 4, 11024

Auto

15.0 26%

Teleop

30.3 52%

Endgame

13.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112.5pts

Blue projected score61.2pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51.3
Score range: 25–148
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 352 vs event baseline 199.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

204.4Season APEX324.3

20.4Auto15

62.6Teleop30.3

20.8Endgame13.5

94Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	20
teleop	94	121
endgame	29	57
foul	0	0
total	154	198

Result

Final score

154 – 198

Prediction missed · off by 89.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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