Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

118.57 – 201.49

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

248 – 229

Prediction missed · off by 78.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 367.6 ±11

702Bagel Bytes

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 57.21Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

696Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 145.1Event APEX 51.2Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2404Team NEY Techs (TNT)

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 10.16Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374.5 ±12.4

8533Rancho Reapers

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 25.73Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10147ArmBots

Season APEX 26.4Event APEX 28.77Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 146.99Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 702, 696, 2404

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 702, 696, 2404

Auto

27.2 23%

Teleop

46.7 39%

Endgame

45.4 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8533, 10147, 7415

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8533, 10147, 7415

Auto

39.7 20%

Teleop

93.9 47%

Endgame

64.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score118.6pts

Blue projected score201.5pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -82.9
Score range: 84–236
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 477 vs event baseline 193.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

367.6Season APEX374.5

27.2Auto39.7

46.7Teleop93.9

45.4Endgame64.9

88Consistency119

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	42
teleop	139	145
endgame	59	42
foul	0	0
total	248	229

Result

Final score

248 – 229

Prediction missed · off by 78.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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