Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

253.46 – 227.81

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

246 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 4.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 469 ±10.5

7323TriTron

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX 46.17Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 117.09Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8033Highlander Robotics

Season APEX 146.1Event APEX 90.2Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 423.9 ±12.4

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 178.17Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9772Titans Robotics

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 43.13Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8060Command B

Season APEX 38Event APEX 6.51Rank 37Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7323, 9084, 8033

/ 100 compat

Projected

253.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7323, 9084, 8033

Auto

45.3 18%

Teleop

161.7 66%

Endgame

39.3 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6036, 9772, 8060

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6036, 9772, 8060

Auto

29.8 13%

Teleop

165.8 72%

Endgame

34.8 15%

Strengths

· 6036 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score253.5pts

Blue projected score227.8pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.7
Score range: 194–287
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 472 vs event baseline 191.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

469Season APEX423.9

45.3Auto29.8

161.7Teleop165.8

39.3Endgame34.8

29Consistency121

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	20
teleop	150	152
endgame	84	44
foul	0	10
total	246	226

Result

Final score

246 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 4.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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