Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

217.16 – 285.06

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

97 – 290

Prediction correct · off by 62.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 500.1 ±10.7

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 67.38Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 143.62Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6658Rockbotics

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 6.16Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 401.6 ±11.7

4Team 4 ELEMENT

Season APEX 146.5Event APEX 68.88Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6995NOMAD

Season APEX 191.6Event APEX 154.09Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3965Sultan Robotics Team 3965

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 62.09Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11024, 3255, 6658

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11024, 3255, 6658

Auto

25.3 12%

Teleop

142.7 68%

Endgame

42.7 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4, 6995, 3965

/ 100 compat

Projected

285.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4, 6995, 3965

Auto

50.7 18%

Teleop

155.4 55%

Endgame

76.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 2.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score217.2pts

Blue projected score285.1pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67.9
Score range: 183–319
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 387 vs event baseline 191.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

500.1Season APEX401.6

25.3Auto50.7

142.7Teleop155.4

42.7Endgame76.7

69Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	60
teleop	38	158
endgame	31	47
foul	0	25
total	97	290

Result

Final score

97 – 290

Prediction correct · off by 62.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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