Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

131.32 – 255.39

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

60 – 367

Prediction correct · off by 91.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 165.1 ±13.3

3328NoHoRobo

Season APEX 60.9Event APEX 16.9Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

10147ArmBots

Season APEX 26.4Event APEX 44.85Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5089Robo-Nerds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 69.57Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 654.9 ±10.7

2659RoboWarriors

A+

Season APEX 298.8Event APEX 110.03Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9696Hamichanics

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 32.13Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 113.23Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3328, 10147, 5089

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3328, 10147, 5089

Auto

1.7 1%

Teleop

92.1 72%

Endgame

33.8 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2659, 9696, 5026

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2659, 9696, 5026

Auto

34.3 13%

Teleop

137.5 53%

Endgame

86.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.96 · Blue 2.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score131.3pts

Blue projected score255.4pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -124.1
Score range: 96–290
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 427 vs event baseline 194.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

165.1Season APEX654.9

1.7Auto34.3

92.1Teleop137.5

33.8Endgame86

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	39
teleop	21	268
endgame	18	60
foul	0	0
total	60	367

Result

Final score

60 – 367

Prediction correct · off by 91.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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