Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

180.33 – 232.82

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

281 – 87

Prediction missed · off by 123.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 552.3 ±10.7

2429The Blockheads

Season APEX 229.5Event APEX 38.56Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4964Roosevelt Robotics

Season APEX 65.8Event APEX 35.01Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3512Spartatroniks

Season APEX 257Event APEX 106.76Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 244 ±13.3

8533Rancho Reapers

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 66.01Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9505Vyserions

Season APEX 54.4Event APEX 76.5Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

702Bagel Bytes

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 90.31Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2429, 4964, 3512

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2429, 4964, 3512

Auto

43.0 24%

Teleop

99.1 56%

Endgame

35.6 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8533, 9505, 702

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8533, 9505, 702

Auto

51.7 22%

Teleop

110.5 47%

Endgame

74.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score180.3pts

Blue projected score232.8pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.5
Score range: 145–268
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 368 vs event baseline 195.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

552.3Season APEX244

43Auto51.7

99.1Teleop110.5

35.6Endgame74.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	8
teleop	187	64
endgame	34	15
foul	0	0
total	281	87

Result

Final score

281 – 87

Prediction missed · off by 123.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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