Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

195.97 – 200.4

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

49 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 95.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316.6 ±11.2

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 110.99Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10166Thunder Vikes

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX -14.14Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8033Highlander Robotics

Season APEX 146.1Event APEX 99.12Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 525.6 ±11.2

597The Wolverines

Season APEX 107.4Event APEX 64.35Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1148Harvard Westlake Robotics

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 13.79Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 122.26Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11024, 10166, 8033

/ 100 compat

Projected

196 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11024, 10166, 8033

Auto

29.8 15%

Teleop

115.3 60%

Endgame

48.1 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 597, 1148, 3255

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 597, 1148, 3255

Auto

48.4 24%

Teleop

113.8 56%

Endgame

40.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score196pts

Blue projected score200.4pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.4
Score range: 160–236
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 205 vs event baseline 201.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316.6Season APEX525.6

29.8Auto48.4

115.3Teleop113.8

48.1Endgame40.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	21
teleop	35	108
endgame	1	17
foul	0	10
total	49	156

Result

Final score

49 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 95.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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