Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

58.83 – 111.59

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

226 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 160.8 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 293.3 ±12.8

6995NOMAD

Season APEX 191.6Event APEX 48.29Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8533Rancho Reapers

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 17.83Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10936Hooverstan

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX -7.29Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 472.1 ±11.7

10147ArmBots

Season APEX 26.4Event APEX -15.66Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 92.76Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6560Charging Champions

Season APEX 111Event APEX 34.49Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6995, 8533, 10936

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6995, 8533, 10936

Auto

31.1 52%

Teleop

12.1 20%

Endgame

16.4 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10147, 6036, 6560

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10147, 6036, 6560

Auto

30.6 28%

Teleop

60.9 56%

Endgame

17.8 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score58.8pts

Blue projected score111.6pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.8
Score range: 22–149
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 492 vs event baseline 204.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

293.3Season APEX472.1

31.1Auto30.6

12.1Teleop60.9

16.4Endgame17.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	51
teleop	98	164
endgame	65	51
foul	15	0
total	226	266

Result

Final score

226 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 160.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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