Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

156.87 – 55.53

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

215 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 92.3 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 450.4 ±11.2

10166Thunder Vikes

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX -7.55Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4Team 4 ELEMENT

Season APEX 146.5Event APEX 60.95Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 103.47Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 436.5 ±11.2

8033Highlander Robotics

Season APEX 146.1Event APEX 61.84Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2429The Blockheads

Season APEX 229.5Event APEX 11.1Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3328NoHoRobo

Season APEX 60.9Event APEX -17.41Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10166, 4, 3501

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10166, 4, 3501

Auto

12.3 8%

Teleop

104.3 68%

Endgame

36.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8033, 2429, 3328

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8033, 2429, 3328

Auto

16.0 27%

Teleop

18.7 32%

Endgame

24.5 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.3 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score156.9pts

Blue projected score55.5pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 101.3
Score range: 19–194
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 397 vs event baseline 205.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

450.4Season APEX436.5

12.3Auto16

104.3Teleop18.7

36.7Endgame24.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	21
teleop	120	107
endgame	62	54
foul	0	0
total	215	182

Result

Final score

215 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 92.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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