Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

290.25 – 301.85

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

282 – 298

Prediction correct · off by 6.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 540.9 ±11.2

9520Rock-it Robotics

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 22.18Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 196.07Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4Team 4 ELEMENT

Season APEX 146.5Event APEX 72Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 517.5 ±11.7

597The Wolverines

Season APEX 107.4Event APEX 40.18Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

702Bagel Bytes

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 98.99Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 162.68Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9520, 5026, 4

/ 100 compat

Projected

290.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9520, 5026, 4

Auto

46.3 16%

Teleop

170.5 59%

Endgame

71.4 25%

Strengths

· 5026 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 597, 702, 7415

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 597, 702, 7415

Auto

62.4 21%

Teleop

157.2 53%

Endgame

76.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score290.3pts

Blue projected score301.9pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.6
Score range: 252–340
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 580 vs event baseline 212.9.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

540.9Season APEX517.5

46.3Auto62.4

170.5Teleop157.2

71.4Endgame76.8

68Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	55
teleop	181	141
endgame	93	102
foul	0	0
total	282	298

Result

Final score

282 – 298

Prediction correct · off by 6.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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