Final · Finals 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

354.87 – 389.57

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

337 – 314

Prediction missed · off by 46.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 572.6 ±9.8

2404Team NEY Techs (TNT)

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 24.16Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 163.1Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6995NOMAD

Season APEX 191.6Event APEX 167.61Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 798.9 ±8.7

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 6.29Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 185.06Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 198.22Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2404, 7415, 6995

/ 100 compat

Projected

354.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2404, 7415, 6995

Auto

72.4 21%

Teleop

185.8 54%

Endgame

82.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11024, 6036, 5026

/ 100 compat

Projected

389.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11024, 6036, 5026

Auto

77.7 20%

Teleop

226.8 60%

Endgame

75.8 20%

Strengths

· 5026 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score354.9pts

Blue projected score389.6pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.7
Score range: 317–428
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 651 vs event baseline 211.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

572.6Season APEX798.9

72.4Auto77.7

185.8Teleop226.8

82.9Endgame75.8

50Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	108	61
teleop	142	128
endgame	87	120
foul	0	5
total	337	314

Result

Final score

337 – 314

Prediction missed · off by 46.7 pts

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