Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

201.39 – 210.62

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

240 – 206

Prediction missed · off by 21.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 325.6 ±11

1700Gatorbotics

Season APEX 69Event APEX 23.57Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 101.86Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5419Berkelium

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 75.96Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 325.6 ±11.6

6814Ellipse

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 24.53Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5499Bearium

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 77.07Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8852Drew Robotics

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 109.02Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1700, 6418, 5419

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1700, 6418, 5419

Auto

43.2 22%

Teleop

108.3 55%

Endgame

46.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6814, 5499, 8852

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6814, 5499, 8852

Auto

38.6 19%

Teleop

133.9 65%

Endgame

34.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score201.4pts

Blue projected score210.6pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.2
Score range: 168–244
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 446 vs event baseline 184.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

325.6Season APEX325.6

43.2Auto38.6

108.3Teleop133.9

46.3Endgame34.3

51Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	41
teleop	124	97
endgame	57	53
foul	5	15
total	240	206

Result

Final score

240 – 206

Prediction missed · off by 21.6 pts

Match videos

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