Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
420 – 333.79
75%25%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
440 – 430
Prediction correct · off by 58.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 571.1 ±10.5
Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 210.01Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 41.8Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 283Event APEX 168.19Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 411.6 ±11
Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 45.14Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 187.5Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 163.1Event APEX 101.15Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 841, 1854, 4698
80
/ 100 compatProjected
420 pts
~2.2 RP (district)
Teams: 841, 1854, 4698
Auto
64.9 16%
Teleop
242.2 58%
Endgame
108.1 26%
Strengths
- · 841 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 7%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10281, 6962, 9400
79
/ 100 compatProjected
333.8 pts
~1.2 RP (district)
Teams: 10281, 6962, 9400
Auto
41.2 13%
Teleop
205.6 63%
Endgame
80.6 25%
Strengths
- · 6962 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 7%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.16 · Blue 1.19
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score420pts
Blue projected score333.8pts
Red win probability75%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 58%, blue 57%
Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 9%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 86.2
- Score range
- 301–453
- Upset likelihood
- 25%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Match context
Close match
High scoring
Playoff
Combined score 870 vs event baseline 181.3.
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
571.1Season APEX411.6
64.9Auto41.2
242.2Teleop205.6
108.1Endgame80.6
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 74 | 70 |
| teleop | 264 | 227 |
| endgame | 97 | 128 |
| foul | 5 | 5 |
| total | 440 | 430 |
Result
Final score
440 – 430
Prediction correct · off by 58.1 pts
Match videos
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