Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

174.21 – 222.62

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

150 – 150

Prediction missed · off by 48.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 248.7 ±11.6

5171Deus Ex Machina

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 67.69Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4904Bot-Provoking

Season APEX 65.4Event APEX 46.5Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2204Rambots

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 60.02Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 325.6 ±11.6

6814Ellipse

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 28.96Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5499Bearium

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 81.07Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8852Drew Robotics

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 112.59Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5171, 4904, 2204

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5171, 4904, 2204

Auto

36.5 23%

Teleop

81.5 50%

Endgame

43.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6814, 5499, 8852

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6814, 5499, 8852

Auto

40.4 18%

Teleop

143.8 65%

Endgame

35.8 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score174.2pts

Blue projected score222.6pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -48.4
Score range: 142–255
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 300 vs event baseline 180.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

248.7Season APEX325.6

36.5Auto40.4

81.5Teleop143.8

43.8Endgame35.8

50Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	31
teleop	43	79
endgame	81	30
foul	0	10
total	150	150

Result

Final score

150 – 150

Prediction missed · off by 48.4 pts

Match videos

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