Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

151.52 – 122.24

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

166 – 173

Prediction missed · off by 32.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 198.9 ±13.3

2473Goldstrikers

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX 46.41Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

199Deep Blue

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 62.4Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10644West Coast Warriors

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 42.71Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 233.7 ±11.6

4255Robodores

Season APEX 45.9Event APEX 8.87Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9038SF UNITY

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 55.97Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

192GRT

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 57.4Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2473, 199, 10644

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2473, 199, 10644

Auto

23.1 15%

Teleop

79.3 53%

Endgame

46.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4255, 9038, 192

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4255, 9038, 192

Auto

30.0 24%

Teleop

63.1 51%

Endgame

29.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score151.5pts

Blue projected score122.2pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.3
Score range: 90–184
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 339 vs event baseline 180.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

198.9Season APEX233.7

23.1Auto30

79.3Teleop63.1

46.8Endgame29.6

83Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	34
teleop	93	102
endgame	37	32
foul	5	5
total	166	173

Result

Final score

166 – 173

Prediction missed · off by 32.6 pts

Match videos

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