Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

398.37 – 166.16

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

506 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 79.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 571.1 ±10.5

841The BioMechs

Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 202.44Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1854The Chomp Bots

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 35.36Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4698Raider Robotics

Season APEX 283Event APEX 160.57Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 248.7 ±11.6

5171Deus Ex Machina

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 65.43Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4904Bot-Provoking

Season APEX 65.4Event APEX 43.35Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2204Rambots

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 57.38Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 841, 1854, 4698

/ 100 compat

Projected

398.4 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 841, 1854, 4698

Auto

64.8 17%

Teleop

218.0 56%

Endgame

109.5 28%

Strengths

· 841 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5171, 4904, 2204

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5171, 4904, 2204

Auto

38.1 25%

Teleop

77.4 51%

Endgame

36.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.57 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score398.4pts

Blue projected score166.2pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 232.2
Score range: 134–430
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 724 vs event baseline 176.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

571.1Season APEX248.7

64.8Auto38.1

218Teleop77.4

109.5Endgame36.3

9Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	31
teleop	328	108
endgame	111	74
foul	0	5
total	506	218

Result

Final score

506 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 79.7 pts

Match videos

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