Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

206.88 – 120.83

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

147 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 37 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 325.6 ±11

1700Gatorbotics

Season APEX 69Event APEX 26.07Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 103.66Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5419Berkelium

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 77.15Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 233.7 ±11.6

4255Robodores

Season APEX 45.9Event APEX 9.03Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9038SF UNITY

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 54.63Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

192GRT

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 57.17Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1700, 6418, 5419

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1700, 6418, 5419

Auto

46.6 23%

Teleop

112.6 56%

Endgame

42.6 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4255, 9038, 192

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4255, 9038, 192

Auto

33.7 27%

Teleop

61.7 50%

Endgame

27.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score206.9pts

Blue projected score120.8pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 86.1
Score range: 89–239
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 282 vs event baseline 177.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

325.6Season APEX233.7

46.6Auto33.7

112.6Teleop61.7

42.6Endgame27.2

39Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	15
teleop	94	74
endgame	38	41
foul	0	5
total	147	135

Result

Final score

147 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 37 pts

Match videos

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