Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
415.37 – 195.6
94%6%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
373 – 153
Prediction correct · off by 42.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 571.1 ±10.5
Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 207.41Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 40.1Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 283Event APEX 167.86Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 325.6 ±11
Season APEX 69Event APEX 21.79Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 99.73Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 74.08Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 841, 1854, 4698
81
/ 100 compatProjected
415.4 pts
~2.5 RP (district)
Teams: 841, 1854, 4698
Auto
68.7 17%
Teleop
235.7 58%
Endgame
103.0 25%
Strengths
- · 841 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 7%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1700, 6418, 5419
68
/ 100 compatProjected
195.6 pts
~0.7 RP (district)
Teams: 1700, 6418, 5419
Auto
43.6 23%
Teleop
100.9 53%
Endgame
46.8 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 7%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.55 · Blue 0.69
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score415.4pts
Blue projected score195.6pts
Red win probability94%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 58%, blue 53%
Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 219.8
- Score range
- 163–448
- Upset likelihood
- 6%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
571.1Season APEX325.6
68.7Auto43.6
235.7Teleop100.9
103Endgame46.8
0Consistency53
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 53 | 20 |
| teleop | 205 | 67 |
| endgame | 100 | 61 |
| foul | 15 | 5 |
| total | 373 | 153 |
Result
Final score
373 – 153
Prediction correct · off by 42.5 pts
Match videos
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