Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

326.83 – 208.24

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

0 – 99

Prediction missed · off by 218 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 411.6 ±11

10281MechaWolves

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 42.57Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 184.96Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9400BagelBytes

Season APEX 163.1Event APEX 99.3Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 325.6 ±11

1700Gatorbotics

Season APEX 69Event APEX 25.92Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 104.07Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5419Berkelium

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 78.25Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10281, 6962, 9400

/ 100 compat

Projected

326.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10281, 6962, 9400

Auto

43.7 14%

Teleop

192.6 60%

Endgame

83.2 26%

Strengths

· 6962 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1700, 6418, 5419

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1700, 6418, 5419

Auto

44.7 22%

Teleop

111.9 55%

Endgame

48.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.31 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score326.8pts

Blue projected score208.2pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 118.6
Score range: 174–361
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 99 vs event baseline 187.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

411.6Season APEX325.6

43.7Auto44.7

192.6Teleop111.9

83.2Endgame48.1

0Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	36
teleop	150	25
endgame	70	38
foul	0	0
total	0	99

Result

Final score

0 – 99

Prediction missed · off by 218 pts

Match videos

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