Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
380.98 – 423.18
37%63%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
474 – 354
Prediction missed · off by 81.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 616.3 ±9.3
Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 11.44Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 196.34Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 173.2Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 571.1 ±10.5
Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 211.16Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 42.61Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 283Event APEX 169.41Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 10339, 3256, 972
81
/ 100 compatProjected
381 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 10339, 3256, 972
Auto
87.9 23%
Teleop
223.5 59%
Endgame
69.0 18%
Strengths
- · 3256 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 61%
Supercharged: 9%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 841, 1854, 4698
80
/ 100 compatProjected
423.2 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 841, 1854, 4698
Auto
66.1 16%
Teleop
246.6 59%
Endgame
105.8 25%
Strengths
- · 841 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 61%
Supercharged: 9%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.93
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score381pts
Blue projected score423.2pts
Red win probability37%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 61%, blue 58%
Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 7%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -42.2
- Score range
- 348–456
- Upset likelihood
- 37%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
616.3Season APEX571.1
87.9Auto66.1
223.5Teleop246.6
69Endgame105.8
4Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 96 | 84 |
| teleop | 278 | 168 |
| endgame | 95 | 87 |
| foul | 5 | 15 |
| total | 474 | 354 |
Result
Final score
474 – 354
Prediction missed · off by 81.1 pts
Match videos
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