Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

349.82 – 131.19

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

195 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 95.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 411.6 ±11

10281MechaWolves

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 50.59Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 192.75Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9400BagelBytes

Season APEX 163.1Event APEX 106.48Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 233.7 ±11.6

4255Robodores

Season APEX 45.9Event APEX 12.78Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9038SF UNITY

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 57.59Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

192GRT

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 60.82Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10281, 6962, 9400

/ 100 compat

Projected

349.8 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10281, 6962, 9400

Auto

46.0 13%

Teleop

209.0 61%

Endgame

88.7 26%

Strengths

· 6962 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4255, 9038, 192

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4255, 9038, 192

Auto

30.5 23%

Teleop

70.7 54%

Endgame

29.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.56 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score349.8pts

Blue projected score131.2pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 218.6
Score range: 98–383
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 363 vs event baseline 184.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

411.6Season APEX233.7

46Auto30.5

209Teleop70.7

88.7Endgame29.4

0Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	46
teleop	96	82
endgame	52	40
foul	15	0
total	195	168

Result

Final score

195 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 95.8 pts

Match videos

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