Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

74.5 – 64.31

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 201

Prediction missed · off by 85.6 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 184.7 ±13.3

9111Pyro Mechanics

Season APEX 100Event APEX 39.64Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4255Robodores

Season APEX 45.9Event APEX 22.29Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10221#1 Sea Bass

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 12.57Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.4 ±12.2

2473Goldstrikers

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX 22.29Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 23.1Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10644West Coast Warriors

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 18.92Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9111, 4255, 10221

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9111, 4255, 10221

Auto

18.7 25%

Teleop

48.9 66%

Endgame

6.9 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2473, 6418, 10644

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2473, 6418, 10644

Auto

11.8 18%

Teleop

39.8 62%

Endgame

12.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74.5pts

Blue projected score64.3pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.2
Score range: 33–106
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 241 vs event baseline 173.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

184.7Season APEX276.4

18.7Auto11.8

48.9Teleop39.8

6.9Endgame12.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	37
teleop	10	123
endgame	12	41
foul	0	0
total	40	201

Result

Final score

40 – 201

Prediction missed · off by 85.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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