Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

131.93 – 156.51

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

144 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 57.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 221.3 ±15.3

5171Deus Ex Machina

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 65.29Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10500Lodestar

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 10.85Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

199Deep Blue

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 55.79Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 328.2 ±14.9

841The BioMechs

Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 192.89Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10372THE ANTS

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX -15.83Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5027Event Horizon (5027)

Season APEX 28.7Event APEX -20.55Rank 39Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5171, 10500, 199

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5171, 10500, 199

Auto

22.2 17%

Teleop

54.7 41%

Endgame

57.4 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 841, 10372, 5027

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 841, 10372, 5027

Auto

12.9 8%

Teleop

87.9 57%

Endgame

54.4 35%

Strengths

· 841 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score131.9pts

Blue projected score156.5pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.6
Score range: 100–189
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 403 vs event baseline 175.2.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

221.3Season APEX328.2

22.2Auto12.9

54.7Teleop87.9

57.4Endgame54.4

51Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	9
teleop	82	171
endgame	24	79
foul	0	0
total	144	259

Result

Final score

144 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 57.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.