Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

183.1 – 13.98

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

178 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 28.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 293.7 ±11.6

9400BagelBytes

Season APEX 163.1Event APEX 103.63Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1854The Chomp Bots

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 35.54Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4904Bot-Provoking

Season APEX 65.4Event APEX 43.93Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 136 ±13.9

10221#1 Sea Bass

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 3.09Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11230White Hat Hackers

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 12.94Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4973Gator Gears

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX -2.05Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9400, 1854, 4904

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.1 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9400, 1854, 4904

Auto

39.2 22%

Teleop

88.8 50%

Endgame

48.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10221, 11230, 4973

/ 100 compat

Projected

14 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10221, 11230, 4973

Auto

12.4 100%

Teleop

-6.8 0%

Endgame

5.6 50%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.4 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score183.1pts

Blue projected score14pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 169.1
Score range: -18–215
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 243 vs event baseline 175.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

293.7Season APEX136

39.2Auto12.4

88.8Teleop-6.8

48.4Endgame5.6

46Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	14
teleop	115	32
endgame	44	14
foul	5	5
total	178	65

Result

Final score

178 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 28.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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