Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

402.87 – 151.06

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

482 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 62.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 583.5 ±10.7

10615Spartan110

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 20.1Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 180.74Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3256WarriorBorgs

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 202.03Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 216 ±13.3

2551Penguin Empire

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 24.69Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10644West Coast Warriors

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 42.28Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5499Bearium

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 84.09Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10615, 972, 3256

/ 100 compat

Projected

402.9 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10615, 972, 3256

Auto

80.2 20%

Teleop

255.2 63%

Endgame

72.2 18%

Strengths

· 3256 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2551, 10644, 5499

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2551, 10644, 5499

Auto

23.1 15%

Teleop

100.6 66%

Endgame

29.7 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.73 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score402.9pts

Blue projected score151.1pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 251.8
Score range: 119–435
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 587 vs event baseline 175.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

583.5Season APEX216

80.2Auto23.1

255.2Teleop100.6

72.2Endgame29.7

7Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	126	28
teleop	264	45
endgame	92	32
foul	0	0
total	482	105

Result

Final score

482 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 62.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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