Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

129.21 – 150.42

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

61 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 65.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 230.5 ±12.2

11230White Hat Hackers

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 19.5Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2204Rambots

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 67.57Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1854The Chomp Bots

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 42.14Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299.6 ±14.4

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 94.73Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9038SF UNITY

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 48.83Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10500Lodestar

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 6.86Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11230, 2204, 1854

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11230, 2204, 1854

Auto

26.7 22%

Teleop

67.0 56%

Endgame

25.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6418, 9038, 10500

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6418, 9038, 10500

Auto

38.9 25%

Teleop

88.0 57%

Endgame

26.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score129.2pts

Blue projected score150.4pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.2
Score range: 98–181
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 275 vs event baseline 173.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

230.5Season APEX299.6

26.7Auto38.9

67Teleop88

25.9Endgame26.3

17Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	37
teleop	25	111
endgame	19	66
foul	0	0
total	61	214

Result

Final score

61 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 65.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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