Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

130.62 – 136.26

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

196 – 156

Prediction missed · off by 42.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 217.6 ±12.7

6918Napa Cellar Rats

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 32.11Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4904Bot-Provoking

Season APEX 65.4Event APEX 39.28Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5171Deus Ex Machina

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 59.23Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227.6 ±13.3

4186Alameda Aztechs Robotics

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 45.72Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

199Deep Blue

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 53.07Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2473Goldstrikers

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX 37.47Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6918, 4904, 5171

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6918, 4904, 5171

Auto

39.6 32%

Teleop

49.3 40%

Endgame

34.1 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4186, 199, 2473

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4186, 199, 2473

Auto

10.4 8%

Teleop

78.9 61%

Endgame

40.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score130.6pts

Blue projected score136.3pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.6
Score range: 100–167
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 352 vs event baseline 173.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

217.6Season APEX227.6

39.6Auto10.4

49.3Teleop78.9

34.1Endgame40.4

40Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	10
teleop	95	91
endgame	48	55
foul	0	0
total	196	156

Result

Final score

196 – 156

Prediction missed · off by 42.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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