Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

200.67 – 117.33

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

178 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 15.2 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 269.4 ±11.7

2204Rambots

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 144.86Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5419Berkelium

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX -Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2551Penguin Empire

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX -Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 187.7 ±15.8

199Deep Blue

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX -Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6918Napa Cellar Rats

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 62.86Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5027Event Horizon (5027)

Season APEX 28.7Event APEX 26.57Rank 39Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2204, 5419, 2551

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2204, 5419, 2551

Auto

43.3 22%

Teleop

127.3 63%

Endgame

30.0 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 199, 6918, 5027

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 199, 6918, 5027

Auto

29.2 25%

Teleop

66.0 56%

Endgame

22.2 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.1 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score200.7pts

Blue projected score117.3pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 83.3
Score range: 87–231
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 303 vs event baseline 167.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

269.4Season APEX187.7

26.6Auto20.9

99.4Teleop52

18.9Endgame16.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	9
teleop	93	62
endgame	46	54
foul	0	0
total	178	125

Result

Final score

178 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 15.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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