Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

241.28 – 57.41

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

351 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 64.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 365.8 ±11.7

10221#1 Sea Bass

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX -5.41Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5499Bearium

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 75.66Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 171.03Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 185.8 ±13.9

10615Spartan110

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 18.02Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4669Galileo Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 44.64Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8045The Wallace Dynasty

Season APEX 57Event APEX -5.25Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10221, 5499, 972

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10221, 5499, 972

Auto

36.0 15%

Teleop

161.8 66%

Endgame

48.5 20%

Strengths

· 972 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10615, 4669, 8045

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10615, 4669, 8045

Auto

9.1 16%

Teleop

21.1 37%

Endgame

27.3 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.48 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score241.3pts

Blue projected score57.4pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 183.9
Score range: 26–272
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 428 vs event baseline 172.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

365.8Season APEX185.8

36Auto9.1

161.8Teleop21.1

48.5Endgame27.3

7Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	12
teleop	222	40
endgame	76	10
foul	0	15
total	351	77

Result

Final score

351 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 64.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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