Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

128.81 – 118.71

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

100 – 190

Prediction missed · off by 50.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 288.7 ±13.3

2551Penguin Empire

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 28.43Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10372THE ANTS

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX -12.01Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8852Drew Robotics

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 112.39Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234 ±11.7

6814Ellipse

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 15.84Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10644West Coast Warriors

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 33.35Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5419Berkelium

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 69.52Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2551, 10372, 8852

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2551, 10372, 8852

Auto

27.7 22%

Teleop

81.2 63%

Endgame

19.7 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6814, 10644, 5419

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6814, 10644, 5419

Auto

22.5 18%

Teleop

54.4 43%

Endgame

48.3 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score128.8pts

Blue projected score118.7pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.1
Score range: 88–160
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 290 vs event baseline 172.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

288.7Season APEX234

27.7Auto22.5

81.2Teleop54.4

19.7Endgame48.3

9Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	44
teleop	47	90
endgame	4	56
foul	20	0
total	100	190

Result

Final score

100 – 190

Prediction missed · off by 50.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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