Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

248.22 – 214.1

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

410 – 371

Prediction correct · off by 159.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 421.3 ±11.7

6918Napa Cellar Rats

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 13.76Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3256WarriorBorgs

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 183.76Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10281MechaWolves

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 50.7Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 335.1 ±12.2

5171Deus Ex Machina

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 42.84Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

841The BioMechs

Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 192.37Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10221#1 Sea Bass

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX -21.11Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6918, 3256, 10281

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6918, 3256, 10281

Auto

57.7 23%

Teleop

148.8 59%

Endgame

46.0 18%

Strengths

· 3256 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5171, 841, 10221

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5171, 841, 10221

Auto

34.1 16%

Teleop

121.9 57%

Endgame

58.4 27%

Strengths

· 841 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score248.2pts

Blue projected score214.1pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.1
Score range: 184–278
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 781 vs event baseline 169.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

421.3Season APEX335.1

57.7Auto34.1

148.8Teleop121.9

46Endgame58.4

18Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	97	30
teleop	228	201
endgame	85	140
foul	0	0
total	410	371

Result

Final score

410 – 371

Prediction correct · off by 159.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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