Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

82.11 – 147.96

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

76 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 19 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 197.2 ±14.8

10500Lodestar

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 3.88Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2473Goldstrikers

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX 43.08Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1700Gatorbotics

Season APEX 69Event APEX 35.15Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 248.4 ±12.2

9038SF UNITY

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 53.83Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

192GRT

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 59.69Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2551Penguin Empire

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 34.44Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10500, 2473, 1700

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10500, 2473, 1700

Auto

19.5 27%

Teleop

15.5 21%

Endgame

37.4 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9038, 192, 2551

/ 100 compat

Projected

148 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9038, 192, 2551

Auto

32.2 21%

Teleop

93.3 61%

Endgame

28.7 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score82.1pts

Blue projected score148pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -65.9
Score range: 51–179
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 192 vs event baseline 170.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

197.2Season APEX248.4

19.5Auto32.2

15.5Teleop93.3

37.4Endgame28.7

23Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	35
teleop	40	63
endgame	15	13
foul	0	5
total	76	116

Result

Final score

76 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 19 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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