Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50.73 – 132.58

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

143 – 45

Prediction missed · off by 89.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 202.8 ±14.4

5027Event Horizon (5027)

Season APEX 28.7Event APEX -23.88Rank 39Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6814Ellipse

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 7.44Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5499Bearium

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 67.17Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 207 ±13.3

4973Gator Gears

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 26.21Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1854The Chomp Bots

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 53.16Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9111Pyro Mechanics

Season APEX 100Event APEX 53.21Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5027, 6814, 5499

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5027, 6814, 5499

Auto

4.6 8%

Teleop

35.5 65%

Endgame

14.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4973, 1854, 9111

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4973, 1854, 9111

Auto

30.8 24%

Teleop

58.9 46%

Endgame

38.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.07 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score50.7pts

Blue projected score132.6pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -81.9
Score range: 20–164
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 188 vs event baseline 171.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

202.8Season APEX207

4.6Auto30.8

35.5Teleop58.9

14.5Endgame38.8

81Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	15
teleop	95	25
endgame	20	5
foul	5	0
total	143	45

Result

Final score

143 – 45

Prediction missed · off by 89.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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