Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

542.85 – 67.18

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

538 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 15 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 735.7 ±9.3

841The BioMechs

Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 206.1Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 169.94Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4698Raider Robotics

Season APEX 283Event APEX 166.81Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 220 ±12.2

10339BrainShift

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 21.66Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10281MechaWolves

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 28.95Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11230White Hat Hackers

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 16.57Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 841, 972, 4698

/ 100 compat

Projected

542.8 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 841, 972, 4698

Auto

87.0 16%

Teleop

314.7 59%

Endgame

130.0 24%

Strengths

· 841 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10339, 10281, 11230

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.2 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10339, 10281, 11230

Auto

18.8 28%

Teleop

25.3 37%

Endgame

23.8 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.78 · Blue 0.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score542.8pts

Blue projected score67.2pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 475.7
Score range: 33–577
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 580 vs event baseline 190.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

735.7Season APEX220

87Auto18.8

314.7Teleop25.3

130Endgame23.8

0Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	21
teleop	341	13
endgame	98	8
foul	15	0
total	538	42

Result

Final score

538 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 15 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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