Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

302.26 – 258.8

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

260 – 338

Prediction missed · off by 60.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 440.3 ±11.2

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 170.28Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11274Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 30.95Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 101.03Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 358.6 ±11.7

10615Spartan110

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 5.18Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 185.8Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5419Berkelium

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 67.82Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 972, 11274, 6418

/ 100 compat

Projected

302.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 972, 11274, 6418

Auto

56.6 19%

Teleop

192.7 63%

Endgame

54.5 18%

Strengths

· 972 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10615, 6962, 5419

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10615, 6962, 5419

Auto

40.9 15%

Teleop

157.1 59%

Endgame

68.9 26%

Strengths

· 6962 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score302.3pts

Blue projected score258.8pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.5
Score range: 229–332
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 598 vs event baseline 169.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

440.3Season APEX358.6

56.6Auto40.9

192.7Teleop157.1

54.5Endgame68.9

22Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	38
teleop	173	221
endgame	32	74
foul	15	5
total	260	338

Result

Final score

260 – 338

Prediction missed · off by 60.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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