Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

160.7 – 217.5

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

78 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 51.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 223.4 ±12.7

199Deep Blue

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 54.86Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1700Gatorbotics

Season APEX 69Event APEX 45.4Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9038SF UNITY

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 60.44Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 324.2 ±12.2

4255Robodores

Season APEX 45.9Event APEX 3.15Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11230White Hat Hackers

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 18.8Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

841The BioMechs

Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 195.55Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 199, 1700, 9038

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 199, 1700, 9038

Auto

28.3 18%

Teleop

79.8 51%

Endgame

47.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4255, 11230, 841

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4255, 11230, 841

Auto

28.4 14%

Teleop

131.9 63%

Endgame

48.5 23%

Strengths

· 841 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score160.7pts

Blue projected score217.5pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -56.8
Score range: 130–249
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 276 vs event baseline 169.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

223.4Season APEX324.2

28.3Auto28.4

79.8Teleop131.9

47.2Endgame48.5

53Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	28
teleop	37	102
endgame	1	68
foul	5	0
total	78	198

Result

Final score

78 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 51.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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