Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

152.37 – 180.87

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

164 – 353

Prediction correct · off by 91.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 235.8 ±11.6

4904Bot-Provoking

Season APEX 65.4Event APEX 41.33Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2204Rambots

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 65.42Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2473Goldstrikers

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX 45.62Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 309 ±12.1

5499Bearium

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 50.33Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8852Drew Robotics

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 96.56Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10281MechaWolves

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 33.98Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4904, 2204, 2473

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4904, 2204, 2473

Auto

36.3 25%

Teleop

71.8 50%

Endgame

36.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5499, 8852, 10281

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5499, 8852, 10281

Auto

23.3 13%

Teleop

127.7 70%

Endgame

31.0 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score152.4pts

Blue projected score180.9pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.5
Score range: 121–212
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 517 vs event baseline 169.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

235.8Season APEX309

36.3Auto23.3

71.8Teleop127.7

36.1Endgame31

53Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	49
teleop	57	229
endgame	29	55
foul	60	20
total	164	353

Result

Final score

164 – 353

Prediction correct · off by 91.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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