Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

168.02 – 50.26

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

270 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 59.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 406.9 ±14.5

3256WarriorBorgs

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 174.86Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10500Lodestar

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX -1.46Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8045The Wallace Dynasty

Season APEX 57Event APEX -5.38Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 200 ±13.9

10372THE ANTS

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX -14.34Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7245LionBot Robotics

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 47.24Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6918Napa Cellar Rats

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 17.36Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3256, 10500, 8045

/ 100 compat

Projected

168 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3256, 10500, 8045

Auto

54.9 32%

Teleop

86.9 50%

Endgame

31.7 18%

Strengths

· 3256 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10372, 7245, 6918

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10372, 7245, 6918

Auto

15.8 31%

Teleop

23.6 46%

Endgame

12.4 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.21 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score168pts

Blue projected score50.3pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 117.8
Score range: 19–199
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 304 vs event baseline 169.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

406.9Season APEX200

54.9Auto15.8

86.9Teleop23.6

31.7Endgame12.4

13Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	17
teleop	110	12
endgame	93	5
foul	0	0
total	270	34

Result

Final score

270 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 59.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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