Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

231.34 – 132.33

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

289 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 36.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 441.2 ±12.4

4698Raider Robotics

Season APEX 283Event APEX 152.97Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9111Pyro Mechanics

Season APEX 100Event APEX 48.14Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10644West Coast Warriors

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 30.23Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214.1 ±12.2

5419Berkelium

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 67.42Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5171Deus Ex Machina

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 38.82Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4973Gator Gears

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 26.09Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4698, 9111, 10644

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4698, 9111, 10644

Auto

56.8 27%

Teleop

109.2 51%

Endgame

48.1 22%

Strengths

· 4698 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5419, 5171, 4973

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5419, 5171, 4973

Auto

38.9 30%

Teleop

55.4 43%

Endgame

33.6 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.22 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score231.3pts

Blue projected score132.3pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 99
Score range: 102–261
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 436 vs event baseline 168.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

441.2Season APEX214.1

56.8Auto38.9

109.2Teleop55.4

48.1Endgame33.6

15Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	34
teleop	140	57
endgame	74	51
foul	0	5
total	289	147

Result

Final score

289 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 36.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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